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UBS analysts said everything will still depend on what happens in Jackson Hole, and it will be difficult for the market to make a decision until then. Based on pricing, it seems generally expected that interest rates will be raised in March, so Yellen's speech would need to be very hawkish to advance market expectations from March to March. Technical short selling also put pressure on gold prices. The two consecutive weeks of price consolidation were broken downward. In one minute at Beijing time, more than 10,000 U.S. monthly gold futures contracts changed hands, causing the price to plummet in dollar terms and fall below the daily moving average. Analysts at Canada's Monterey Bank said that the current speculative net long positions in the futures market are still very high. Once market sentiment changes, these positions will be opened. As expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes increase, the risk of metal prices falling in the short term is greater. The risk of overshooting the upside is that new structural catalysts are needed for precious metals to rise further. Analysts at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation pointed out that although the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates once this month, continued risk aversion will continue to support gold's safe-haven demand. If it only raises interest rates once this year, it will maintain its end-of-year gold price forecast at US$/ounce. If it does not raise interest rates, the gold price will rise to US$/ounce. Although the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are improving, investors are expected to continue to be long gold due to the uncertainty of Brexit and the U.S. election in March.
China increases investment in corn futures because the state no longer supports its prices
With the state no longer supporting corn prices, Chinese investors are now building positions in domestic corn futures at a record pace, betting When corn goes on sale for the first time in years without state price support, its price will fall further. China this year announced the cancellation of its temporary corn purchase and storage policy, thus ending the policy of paying high prices to corn farmers to increase farmers' income. The new corn will be available at the end of the month and will be set by the market, rather than the price set by the Chinese government. Data show that open interest in corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit a record high of 10,000 lots on Thursday (June 1), equivalent to 10,000 tons of corn, worth 100 million yuan (100 million U.S. dollars), and 1% of China's output this harvest season. In less than three months, open interest has more than doubled. At the beginning of this month, Dalian’s front-month corn contract hit its lowest level in nearly seven years. The monthly contract fell by 1% since the beginning of the month and is now hovering around RMB per ton. COFCO Futures analyst Meng Jinhui said the market would become very interested in corn once it became clear that the state would no longer support it, noting that positions had grown steadily since the first half of this year.
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